Burley, Idaho 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

185
FXUS65 KPIH 060824
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
224 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday Night.
Hopefully you enjoyed the brief cool down yesterday, because as high
pressure builds back in over the area we will warm up once again.
Highs today push back into the upper 70s for the eastern Magic
Valley and Snake Plain, running about 10 degrees above our averages
for this time of the year. Patchy smoke and haze will continue
around the area due to the recent increase in fire activity, though
impacts are not expected to be widespread as most of the smoke
remains elevated higher up in the atmosphere. That said, expect
some lingering air quality issues around our active fires,
especially up near the Salmon area. The warm weather continues
into the week ahead with highs warming another couple of degrees
for Monday afternoon. A weak disturbance moving through central
California and into Nevada will bring a few more clouds into the
area for Monday afternoon and bring a less than 20 percent chance
of a stray shower or storm to the South Hills/southeastern
Highlands late Monday into Tuesday. However, with so much dry air
at the surface to overcome, it seems unlikely for us to see any
rain. AMM

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Next Saturday.
Temperatures continue to warm through mid week with highs for more
of us reaching back into the low 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday. In
fact, it looks like Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week.
Our highs drop a couple of degrees on Thursday ahead of troughing
moving into the West coast for the second half of the week. The GFS
and ECMWF disagree on where exactly this troughing is coming from
and as a result the ECMWF is drier than the GFS, but both models
agree on at least a bit of a cool down into the 70s and even some
60s for highs by next weekend. We will have to watch how these
models evolve over the next week, but it could provide us with the
next best chance for some precipitation, particularly in the
higher elevations. AMM


&&

.AVIATION...12Z Sunday to 12Z Monday.
High pressure building in over the area means light winds, clear
skies, and VFR conditions will continue throughout Sunday and into
Monday. A weak disturbance lifting north out of Nevada on Monday
will just bring an increase in some mid-level clouds in the second
half of the day. AMM


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sat afternoon humidity was much lower than forecast,
but it appears as though guidance has caught up. There is an
increase in humidity, but not as much as the forecast for this day
24 hours ago. And the afternoon humidity is down for subsequent days
as well. This changes on Tue evening as a threat of moisture from
the south moves in; it may even trigger showers at a minimum for
late Tue afternoon/Tue evening. The extent of the push northward of
this feature is also filled with considerable uncertainty. Clouds
will offset the advection of warmer air from the south, and now it
appears that afternoon highs will continue a trend to warm until a
more significant low approaches on Thu. This low also has much
uncertainty as far as moisture goes this far out, and may bring very
little, or quite a bit, depending on model and ensemble.

Wind continues to weaken compared to yesterday, which may lead to
some stagnation and more smoke and air quality issues. Messick


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$